Exbookie wants to help the plays superbowl thread

[ACE-ACE]

bankroll $75,000
FORMULA SYSTEM 23-15-2
INVESTMENT 23-12-1 +$22,306.00
ACTION 40-35 +$2505
BANKROLL NOW $98,706.00

BUT

the system works for me better than the record
Week 12 on tuesday I got NO-3 for $2000
I posted it in error because to my e-mail list and some
others that did it it at -3...it was a tie

Week14 was the same
Phi-3 I posted but too my list and docsports I had to show what the best line was at the time thurday!
I took it as a lost -$3045...but it was a tie for me

but were system plays

so for me the record should read

bankroll $75,000
FORMULA SYSTEM 23-13-4
INVESTMENT 23-10-3 +$27,491.00
ACTION 40-35 +$2505
BANKROLL NOW $104,996.00

SYSTEM THIS YEAR 23-13-4 64%

ONE OTHER POSTED DID IT BETTER THAN THAT BY BUYING THE 1/2 ON 3
23-12!!! GOOD JOB


Point is...no matter how I try to help...records can be diff/base on went you get the plays!!!...it help to have 10 books also......



System for the last 3 years

23-4
28-12-1
23-13-4

Total of 74-29-5 72%

After 3 months of looking for something that will do the system Right

I'm change the Name to "The Formula 411" and the logo will look like









Just as everything in this world changes, develops, and evolves, so has my way of analyzing the NFL games.It was myline for the last 17 years....now its the 411 way!!!

Over the next 7 months I will be fine tuning the same system....Myline will be added...the big part is "Lineoff"...
Why change a system that has done 71% of 3 year....because it can be better!!!

Over the next 7 Months with help I will put the formula 411 to CFB....or a form of it....I have tested it alittle and I have 7 months to make it work

all this will happen at the start of next Season

Want to thank therx for this forum and the help they have give me over the last year
want to thank everyone that trusted me on my e-mail list that I was the right guy to follow this year...14 out of 17 year...wow!
I did not let you down:toast:

Therx will have Promo on my NBA plays....My CBB plays...and my MLB plays
rank my sports
1. NFL
2.MLB
3. NBA
4. CFB
5.CBB
Have won the last two years in MLB 2009 124-80 +57.5 units +$2958.00 …..2010.. 225-179 ..+94.5 units +$4947.00
CBB record last year 156-144 +33.5 units NBA last year 180-144 +78.5 units +$6225.00 base on 1 unit =$100 this year I’m down a little but after football it will get better (more time spend with the numbers)

Therx promo will let you see a block of my plays over a set time for Free if you put money into one of there Sportbooks...it you were to sign up for one sport at Docsports were I'm Allen Eastman...you would pay $950 a season....so you can see it has value to do the promo....or be lucky to be on my e-mail list


NFL I'm sad to say is coming to a end

Dont cry because it over
Smile because it Happened



Lets get to the last game....Superbowl

..........lineoff
Pitt.......+67
GB .......+140
never been a team in the superbowl with a minus number....never!!!

................Myline........................Last 8............................Last 4

Pitt................................................................-2.5

GB..........-12....................-3.5

as you can see GB for the year is a +9 value......than the last 8 games it shows no Value...than in the last 4 weeks Pitt has a value of +7

how you read that is up to you!!!

Totals
Pitt bookie avg 37.2
GB bookie avg is 43.5
so a avg from the books 40.3

with they did...forum of lineoff
Pitt 41.2
gb 45.5
43.5 avg what they should do

the books Have made this game 46...avg was 40.3....they know you are going to pick the over more....so they move it up 5 points

Read this how you want to,,,you are the capper...I'm only telling you what I see

Formula for totals come to 52 for this game.....



I have a gut feeling whats going to happen in this game...and I will share this as the days past up to the game

Prop bets ...I got one that should win easy


More to come


Ace

 

[SinCityCJ]

Thanks Ace! Another great year. I already cant wait until next season....Hopefully you can find a way to make the "formula 411" work in college football as well. I would love to PM you about getting on your mailing list but cant seem to do it for some reason. Any help from you or other posters would be great. Thanks again and lets say the "OVER" for the super bowl will be your investment play...I think we should get on this line soon before the public bumps it up higher!!

 

[ACE-ACE]

Thanks Ace! Another great year. I already cant wait until next season....Hopefully you can find a way to make the "formula 411" work in college football as well. I would love to PM you about getting on your mailing list but cant seem to do it for some reason. Any help from you or other posters would be great. Thanks again and lets say the "OVER" for the super bowl will be your investment play...I think we should get on this line soon before the public bumps it up higher!!

just hit my name ace-ace ...than view...on the left side you will see how to e-mail me...feel free to talk any time

 

[ACE-ACE]

THIS IS JUST FOR FUN
I'm a numbers guy
what does this mean

This year we will experience 4 unusual dates.... 1/1/11, 1/11/11,
11/1/11, 11/11/11 ......... NOW go figure this out.... take the last 2
digits of the year you were born plus the age you will be on your birthday this year
and it WILL EQUAL .... 111

 

[ACE-ACE]

thing to think about

1. Can Pittsburgh’s combination of Rashard Mendenhall(notes), Heath Miller(notes), Emmanuel Sanders(notes) and Antonio Brown(notes) be as productive as they were in the AFC championship game?
The New York Jets had a good plan to stop Pittsburgh, essentially eliminating wide receivers Hines Ward(notes) and Mike Wallace(notes) from the offense. But the Jets were sloppy with their tackling in the first half, allowing Mendenhall to get too many yards after initial contact. That was a particular problem on the opening touchdown drive and showed up again on Mendenhall’s 35-yard run that set up a field goal. On the Steelers’ second touchdown drive, Miller had a 24-yard catch and Sanders a 20-yarder. Finally, Miller and Brown each had 14-yard catches for first downs on the game-ending drive when the Steelers ran out the clock. Overall, Mendenhall had 121 yards rushing on 27 carries and two catches for 32 yards while Miller, Sanders and Brown combined for four key receptions.
2. Are reporters – like me – going to continue talking about how underrated Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger(notes) is after he posted a horrible 35.5 rating in the AFC championship game?
Say what you want about Roethlisberger as a person – and there is plenty to say because I’m not buying the contention that he’s a “changed” man just yet; he has merely managed to stay out of trouble for the time being and that’s all he gets credit for – but he knows how to make meaningful plays in critical situations. While his stats may have looked ugly (he completed 10 of 19 passes for 133 yards and two interceptions), there are the aforementioned four throws he made to Miller, Sanders and Brown that were clutch. In addition, one of his interceptions came on a tipped pass on fourth down (Roethlisberger threw it too hard, but it was on target), so the end result wasn’t overly negative. The other interception was on a deep pass on second-and-long that served as a de facto punt. Roethlisberger continues to cover the deficiencies of his line by getting away from pressure, so you have a quarterback who does a lot more than the stats reflect. He’s unorthodox, but he’s also 10-2 in the playoffs, something the likes of Neil O’Donnell, Kordell Stewart and Tommy Maddox couldn’t do with the same type of defense before Roethlisberger got there.
3. Can Green Bay’s four-receiver set of Greg Jennings(notes), Donald Driver(notes), James Jones(notes) and Jordy Nelson(notes) give the Steelers secondary problems?
The Packers have the deepest, most balanced set of four receivers in the NFL. All four have the ability to break a big play and have each proved that in the playoffs, even if people keep throwing Jones’ first-half drop at Philadelphia in his face. The Steelers’ secondary is susceptible to this quartet. Pittsburgh did come up with a strip-sack for a touchdown against the Jets on Sunday, but it also gave up a boatload of plays in the second half as New York rallied to make the AFC title game competitive. The Steelers inexplicably gave up a 45-yard touchdown pass to Santonio Holmes(notes) early in the second half. Overall, the Steelers allowed the combination of Holmes, tight end Dustin Keller(notes) and wide receivers Braylon Edwards(notes) and Jerricho Cotchery(notes) to catch 18 passes (out of 30 throws their way) for 208 yards and two touchdowns.
4. Can the Steelers get to quarterback Aaron Rodgers(notes)?
Well, if last year is any indication, the answer is no. During a 37-36 loss to Pittsburgh in 2009 – during which Roethlisberger threw for a Steelers record 503 yards – Rodgers lit up the Steelers. He completed 26 of 48 for 383 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also rushed three times for 22 yards, scoring once on his own. Despite throwing so much, Rodgers was sacked only once. In addition, the Steelers led for most of the game, even if they had to pull out the game in the end with a touchdown by Mike Wallace. Steelers fans will point out that safety Troy Polamalu(notes) didn’t play. Fair enough, but Rodgers is also playing at a much higher level of efficiency and confidence right now. The bottom line is that the Steelers better find a way to pressure Rodgers, who is a very clever scrambler.
5. Can Green Bay’s running game do anything against Pittsburgh?
Rookie James Starks(notes) has had a decent playoff run, but he’ll likely hit the wall in the Super Bowl against Pittsburgh’s fearsome run defense. New York managed only 70 yards on 22 carries and got only one run of any significance (a 23-yarder by Shonn Greene(notes)). The Packers don’t have a rushing attack as potent as the Jets, so don’t expect another solid outing from Starks, who ran for 74 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries against the Bears. His high running style isn’t going to work against the Steelers.
6. What can the Steelers expect from star rookie center Maurkice Pouncey(notes), who had to leave the AFC championship game with a high ankle sprain?
The Steelers missed Pouncey tremendously after he got hurt. Not only did the running game slip, but a bad exchange between Roethlisberger and backup center Doug Legursky(notes) resulted in a safety in the second half. High ankle sprains are difficult to come back from quickly. Players will tell you that they can be worse than a broken leg because it takes longer to return to full health and players make it worse by trying to play through the injury. Pouncey should be OK in two weeks to play at the initial point of attack. He can probably handle what the Packers try to do within a short step to either side. However, any chance of significant lateral movement is a long shot. The good part for Pouncey is that he has to play only one more game before getting a full offseason to rest. It’s also hard to make this injury worse because the pain will be too much to play with.
7. Who has the better defense and does it ultimately matter?
Actually, the Packers and the Steelers have the same defense since former Steelers defensive coordinator Dom Capers installed his version of the 3-4 in Green Bay and brought in the likes of former Steelers Kevin Greene and Darren Perry to help coach it. Basically, the two systems are basically a draw in the front seven with Clay Matthews(notes) offsetting LaMarr Woodley(notes) and B.J. Raji(notes) offsetting Casey Hampton(notes) and so forth. James Harrison(notes) and Lawrence Timmons(notes) might give the Steelers a slight edge up front, but it’s only slight. In the secondary, the Packers appear to have much better depth, featuring Charles Woodson(notes), Tramon Williams(notes) and out-of-nowhere rookie Sam Shields(notes). Sure, the Steelers have Polamalu and Ike Taylor(notes), but the Packers’ secondary has done an amazing job of getting turnovers in the playoffs.
8. Who is the better head coach?
Considering that Mike Tomlin has led the Steelers to the playoffs in three of his four seasons and twice gotten to the Super Bowl, the résumés aren’t really that close. Green Bay’s Mike McCarthy is a great offensive mind, but he has some serious catching up to do. But the bigger issue isn’t who has more pelts. Really, this is a question about how the two coaches handle their jobs. Tomlin is a true manager of the game, setting the tone for how the entire team plays. He has a great understanding of how his team is reacting in a given situation and knows when to push the right buttons. His call at the end of the Jets game to throw on third-and-6 wasn’t just gutsy, it was smart. He knew the Jets had a lot of confidence moving the ball against his defense by that point. By comparison, if there is one criticism of McCarthy, it’s that he often gets too caught up in running the offense and sometimes loses sight of the overall game. That’s one of the reasons he is below .500 in games decided by less than a touchdown.
9. Who has the better special teams units?
The Packers have the better kicker in Mason Crosby(notes), even if Shaun Suisham(notes) has been very good since replacing Jeff Reed(notes). Crosby is 10-for-21 in his career from 50 yards or longer. Suisham is 3-for-9 and missed his only attempt over the past two seasons. Aside from kickers, both teams are susceptible to big returns. The Steelers have consistently given up big returns over the past decade, dating back to when Bill Cowher was the head coach. As for the Packers, they have allowed two touchdown returns this season, including a 102-yarder against Atlanta in the second round of the playoffs. The Packers’ coverage has become a problem because of all the injuries the team has suffered during the season.
10. What relatively unknown players will emerge as Super Bowl heroes?
Green Bay rookie cornerback Sam Shields isn’t coming out of nowhere by now, not after getting two interceptions in the win over Chicago on Sunday. But this overall story is stunning. He was considered a flop at the University of Miami and went undrafted. He’s going to get tested by Roethlisberger, so he’ll get his chances to shine. For the Steelers, the guy on the spot is whoever lines up against Shields – Sanders or Brown. Both have amazing speed and elusiveness, and are way ahead of schedule in their development.

 

[SeeTheCashier]

thanks for all the info ace

 

[jasmine]

if there is a NFL lockout for the 2011 season should bettors take a break or look at other sports to wager on?

 

[ACE-ACE]

if there is a NFL lockout for the 2011 season should bettors take a break or look at other sports to wager on?

There will be cfb...that why I'm trying to put the system together in the next 7 month for cfb if NFL don't start on time.....hope it don't happen

 

[CrazyK]

Hey ace when are you going to post your plays? And just out of curiousity what was the prop? Thanks

 

[ACE-ACE]

Hey ace when are you going to post your plays? And just out of curiousity what was the prop? Thanks

james Starks attempts set at 20.5 -175

only way GB wins this game is by the pass....should be easy money...but you are paying big juice

still looking for a better one

 

[ACE-ACE]

capping tip:::

Keep it Simple.....If you can stay focused on some part of the game one at a time and mark it down...you'll make a significant difference in your game pick!

 

[ACE-ACE]

NFL Trends and Indexes


Super Bowl XLV odds: Opening line report

In many ways, it’s the Super Bowl matchup everyone wanted to see.

The Green Bay Packers squaring off against the Pittsburgh Steelers in a matchup that features two of the most influential franchises in NFL history – not to mention two of the most popular teams among football bettors.

That makes the game’s line pretty interesting. After some early talk that the game could open as low as a pick ‘em, most books settled with a line favoring Green Bay by about 1.5 and a total of 45 or 46 points.

The Packers headed into Championship Weekend pegged as the Super Bowl favorite at about +140, so the opening number was in line with that. But it didn’t stay there long after the Steelers managed to hold off a late surge from the Jets.

“The opening line quickly went to the Packers -2 and looks like it may be going higher,” Chuck Esposito, Race and Sports Executive at the Venetian Resort and Casino, told *********** Sunday night.

Esposito was right about that. Later in the evening, most books had tagged another half point on the Packers, making them -2.5 with the juice set around -120. By Monday morning, most offshore books were dealing -3 (+100) while Vegas shops -2.5 flat.

With early numbers like that coming out, it’s pretty obvious the betting public’s love affair with Green Bay is still in the honeymoon stage. That was the biggest factor in setting the line, according to veteran oddsmaker Pete Korner, of Esportclub LLC.

“The main factor in making this one line was perception,” Korner told ***********. “The perception is that Green Bay is the best team playing right now. They were going to be favorites over the AFC winner no matter who it was.”

Korner actually sent out Green Bay -3 with Cheesehead bettors cleaning up on their late run in the regular season and into the first three rounds of the playoffs.

“They were by far the hottest team in the league down the stretch and the betting public here in Nevada sportsbooks backed them in all three playoff games and did extremely well,” Esposito adds. “But I think you will see plenty of action on the Steelers getting points as it gets closer to game day and that number - especially on the moneyline - will start to drop.”

You could make a good case for a Steelers bet too, which is the perfect situation for the books looking to balance their action on both sides. With Green Bay surging, some are overlooking the fact that Pittsburgh has won eight of its last nine games and has covered the number in six of those contests. During that stretch the Steelers have allowed more than 20 points only twice.

Pittsburgh has also been a regular under wager for many bettors, though the amount of action the books see on the Super Bowl could impact the total as well. Square bettors love over bets as they slam their Budweisers and scarf down their wings.

“The total has been going under the past few years and even though both teams have dynamic offenses, they are two of the very best defensives teams in the game,” Korner says. “I don't think this number runs too far but on a day like this, the public rules and that means they will bet the over.”

Whichever side you decide to lay your money on, the buzz of a Steelers-Packers Super Bowl has Vegas and online betting organizations furiously rubbing their hands together, expecting another huge handle.

“We think it’s going to be one of the most popular Super Bowl’s ever,” says Jay Kornegay, Las Vegas Hilton Sportsbook Director. “Currently, these are the two most popular teams playing for the crown. I don’t know if it will surpass the record from 2006 Super Bowl between the Seahawks and the Steelers but I’m very positive it will surpass last year’s number. The record for Nevada is $94 million - last year we wrote $82 million.”

PITTSBURGH (14 - 4) vs. GREEN BAY (13 - 6) - 2/6/2011, 6:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 59-38 ATS (+17.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Short Sheet


Sunday, February 6

Super Bowl XLV (at Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, TX)
PITTSBURGH vs. GREEN BAY, 6:25 PM ET
PITTSBURGH: 59-38 ATS as an underdog
GREEN BAY: 10-2 Under off SU win


Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6:30 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. GREEN BAY
Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh

 

[ACE-ACE]

what the Sharps are thinking for Props:




Sharps are not loading up on either side for this game. They loved Green Bay at pick 'em, they loved Pittsburgh at +3. Now that the pointspread has settled between the two numbers, we're seeing lukewarm support for both sides, perhaps a notch or two more on the Packers side.

We definitely saw a bevy of sharps pounding the Under when it hit 46 last week; now down to 44 or 44.5. Sharps love the Dom Capers vs. Dick LeBeau defensive coordinator matchup with extra time to prepare. And we've seen Unders cash in five of the last six Super Bowls. The Steelers vs. Cardinals Super Bowl was the only recent exception, and that game was a dead nuts Under until a wild final five minutes.

Enough with the side and total! The real story about the Super Bowl comes from the plethora of proposition wagers available to wager on. For the sake of brevity, I'm going to concentrate on prop bets that are A.) at the Hilton and B.) were bet hard when the Hilton opened their numbers last week. Jay Kornegay and his staff are the industry leaders when it comes to Super Bowl props. I’ll happily give them the attention they deserve here.

Aaron Rodgers got bet up for his rushing numbers. Rodgers’ first rush of the game Over 4.5 yards took money, as did the Over 18.5 rushing yards for the game. Bettors expect him to scramble out of the pocket against LeBeau's blitzes effectively, like he's done all year.

There was also some upwards pressure on Rodgers at O/U 18.5 completions. The thought process goes like this: Pittsburgh had the best defense in the NFL at avoiding explosive plays – no team in the NFL allowed fewer plays of 20 yards or more this year. We can expect Rodgers to have to throw underneath which equals more completions, not more yardage. The yardage prop (O/U 274.5) has not moved nearly as much as the “Over completions” has moved.

Jordy Nelson is attracting quite a bit of wise guy support at O/U 40.5 yards and O/U 3.5 catches. Again, the season long numbers suggest a bet on the Under, but current form demands a play on the Over. In two playoff games: Nelson has eight and four catches, for 79 and 67 yards. Like Green Bay's defense, the Steelers have shown vulnerability to third and fourth receivers with their blitzing schemes.

James Starks Over 16 carries. Bettors watched Starks unable to gain yardage or first downs as Green Bay struggled to run out the clock against the Bears in the NFC Championship Game. And they know that the Steelers had the No. 1 rushing defense in the NFL this year. That's why Starks Over 49.5 yards hasn't attracted as much attention as his number of carries. Green Bay is favored, so Starks should get his fair share of carries in the second half if the Packers try to run out the clock. In three playoff games, he's had 23, 25 and 22 rushing attempts, despite only getting 29 for the entire regular season. Bettors expect that current form to continue.

Heath Miller -23.5 receiving yards vs. John Kuhn: Money poured in on Miller: 23.5 -120, then 26.5 -120, then 28.5 -120. Money also came on Heath Miller over 37.5 receiving yards for the game. Green Bay’s defense is vulnerable to big days from opposing tight ends – their secondary does a dynamite job containing first and second receivers, but not so good against the tight ends going over the middle.

Ben Roethlisberger first half passing yards vs. second half passing yards: This line opened pick -120 on the second half, and immediately got hit with heavy money on the 2nd half. The thought process here is two-fold: Green Bay is favored and Pitt came out running vs. the Jets. Green Bay favored means that they should be leading at halftime, forcing Pittsburgh into a more pass heavy attack. Pittsburgh ran against the Jets and it worked, so expect a similar gameplan here resulting in fewer Roethlisberger pass attempts (and therefore passing yards) in the first half.

Every year, wise guys lay heavy juice on props that the squares love to hit at plus prices. The classic here is the “Will there be overtime?” The “No” has cashed every year since the Super Bowl started. Squares bet the “Yes” every year looking for the long shot score. Sharps happily lay -1100 to win $100 on the “No”.

Sharps bet the “No” on “Will Troy Polamalu record an interception” at -300. Polamalu is not going to be 100%; he was basically a non-factor in the first two playoff games. This is another type of heavy juice prop that professional bettors are willing to lay, while squares look for the plus price on the “Yes”.

It's a similar story on the “Will there be a safety” prop (also a near 10:1 shot), and the “Will either team score three straight times”, with the “Yes” (what wise guys bet) at -175 and the “No” at a nice plus price. Sharps also look to bet “Shortest touchdown of the game under 1.5 yards”, while squares bet that same prop Over 1.5 yards, even though it tends to be priced in the -115 range.

We've seen sharp money coming in on “Different Packers with a rushing attempt” Over 4. Green Bay's last eight games saw four with four rushers and four with five rushers. Those are very different recent numbers compared to their full season numbers. James Starks, Aaron Rodgers, John Kuhn and Brandon Jackson are virtual locks to get at least one carry, so this bet becomes something of a free roll: one end around or reverse and Over tickets cash. Pittsburgh was lined at 4.5 rushers; not taking anywhere near the same amount of Over money.

Some books opened Packers and Steelers O/U 6.5 different players with a reception. Hilton opened that prop O/U 7.5. Needless to say, the books that opened 6.5 are now Over -200 or higher.

Player to get first reception: Mike Wallace vs. Greg Jennings. Jennings got bet hard, now a heavy favorite. Current form shows a dramatic decline from Wallace in the playoffs, catching only four passes in Pittsburgh’s two wins. Meanwhile, the Packers targeted Jennings with their first two plays from scrimmage in the NFC Championship, and he finished the game with eight receptions for the second consecutive week.

Let's not forget those punters! Tim Masthay of Green Bay took some $$ with his longest punt Over 54.5 yards bet up to 55 -130 right from the get-go. Masthay also took some “no touchback” money, even at -200. He only had five touchbacks all year, compared to 25 punts downed inside the 20.

 

[BernieVegas]

NFL Trends and Indexes


Super Bowl XLV odds: Opening line report

In many ways, it’s the Super Bowl matchup everyone wanted to see.

The Green Bay Packers squaring off against the Pittsburgh Steelers in a matchup that features two of the most influential franchises in NFL history – not to mention two of the most popular teams among football bettors.

That makes the game’s line pretty interesting. After some early talk that the game could open as low as a pick ‘em, most books settled with a line favoring Green Bay by about 1.5 and a total of 45 or 46 points.

The Packers headed into Championship Weekend pegged as the Super Bowl favorite at about +140, so the opening number was in line with that. But it didn’t stay there long after the Steelers managed to hold off a late surge from the Jets.

“The opening line quickly went to the Packers -2 and looks like it may be going higher,” Chuck Esposito, Race and Sports Executive at the Venetian Resort and Casino, told *********** Sunday night.

Esposito was right about that. Later in the evening, most books had tagged another half point on the Packers, making them -2.5 with the juice set around -120. By Monday morning, most offshore books were dealing -3 (+100) while Vegas shops -2.5 flat.

With early numbers like that coming out, it’s pretty obvious the betting public’s love affair with Green Bay is still in the honeymoon stage. That was the biggest factor in setting the line, according to veteran oddsmaker Pete Korner, of Esportclub LLC.

“The main factor in making this one line was perception,” Korner told ***********. “The perception is that Green Bay is the best team playing right now. They were going to be favorites over the AFC winner no matter who it was.”

Korner actually sent out Green Bay -3 with Cheesehead bettors cleaning up on their late run in the regular season and into the first three rounds of the playoffs.

“They were by far the hottest team in the league down the stretch and the betting public here in Nevada sportsbooks backed them in all three playoff games and did extremely well,” Esposito adds. “But I think you will see plenty of action on the Steelers getting points as it gets closer to game day and that number - especially on the moneyline - will start to drop.”

You could make a good case for a Steelers bet too, which is the perfect situation for the books looking to balance their action on both sides. With Green Bay surging, some are overlooking the fact that Pittsburgh has won eight of its last nine games and has covered the number in six of those contests. During that stretch the Steelers have allowed more than 20 points only twice.

Pittsburgh has also been a regular under wager for many bettors, though the amount of action the books see on the Super Bowl could impact the total as well. Square bettors love over bets as they slam their Budweisers and scarf down their wings.

“The total has been going under the past few years and even though both teams have dynamic offenses, they are two of the very best defensives teams in the game,” Korner says. “I don't think this number runs too far but on a day like this, the public rules and that means they will bet the over.”

Whichever side you decide to lay your money on, the buzz of a Steelers-Packers Super Bowl has Vegas and online betting organizations furiously rubbing their hands together, expecting another huge handle.

“We think it’s going to be one of the most popular Super Bowl’s ever,” says Jay Kornegay, Las Vegas Hilton Sportsbook Director. “Currently, these are the two most popular teams playing for the crown. I don’t know if it will surpass the record from 2006 Super Bowl between the Seahawks and the Steelers but I’m very positive it will surpass last year’s number. The record for Nevada is $94 million - last year we wrote $82 million.”

PITTSBURGH (14 - 4) vs. GREEN BAY (13 - 6) - 2/6/2011, 6:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 59-38 ATS (+17.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Short Sheet


Sunday, February 6

Super Bowl XLV (at Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, TX)
PITTSBURGH vs. GREEN BAY, 6:25 PM ET
PITTSBURGH: 59-38 ATS as an underdog
GREEN BAY: 10-2 Under off SU win


Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6:30 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. GREEN BAY
Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh

Ace just alittle info for all your followers...They all may find this interesting...It was reported that Jimmy Vaccaro, The Director of Sports Operations and Public Relations for Lucky's Race & Sports Book took in a $1 million dollar wager on the Green Bay Packers when the line opened prompting an immediate 1/2pt raise in the number. The play was made by a successful professional gambler in Las Vegas and it was confirmed by Jimmy Vaccaro himself. For those that don't know Jimmy Vaccaro, he is considered by many Las Vegas's most influential linesmaker/bookmaker for the past 20 years.

Just a little tidbit of info for everyone...

Yours in Winners
Bernie

 

[mpacman]

Link? or u talking about the article in Vegasinsider where a house player wagered at MGM with a big line of credit?

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace just alittle info for all your followers...They all may find this interesting...It was reported that Jimmy Vaccaro, The Director of Sports Operations and Public Relations for Lucky's Race & Sports Book took in a $1 million dollar wager on the Green Bay Packers when the line opened prompting an immediate 1/2pt raise in the number. The play was made by a successful professional gambler in Las Vegas and it was confirmed by Jimmy Vaccaro himself. For those that don't know Jimmy Vaccaro, he is considered by many Las Vegas's most influential linesmaker/bookmaker for the past 20 years.

Just a little tidbit of info for everyone...

Yours in Winners
Bernie

I see the play as a good move gb -2....now that same group could come back and bet Pitt +3.5 buying a little for a bet to fall in the middle...everyone thinks that this will be a close game

 

[BernieVegas]

I see the play as a good move gb -2....now that same group could come back and bet Pitt +3.5 buying a little for a bet to fall in the middle...everyone thinks that this will be a close game

Very true Ace...It gives them the possibilty to buy back and get that key number 3 on their side for a nice middle. I know everyone thinks this game will be close but I'm not having that feeling. Two propositions say this game may not be as close as people think, especially since the sportsbooks don't put out propositions with great plus side propositions. The two I'm talking about are

(1) Will either team score 3 unanswered times
Yes -175
No +145
In a close game one would not think one team would score 3 unanswered times. Also, with Green Bay's offense and the fact they haven't lost a game by more than four points all year, that would by past performance this year likely eliminate Pitt from scoring 3 unanswered times. Anyone who likes a close game would love the upside of that NO + 145 action on this prop/unless GB was the team to score 3 unanswered times /. The sportsbooks aren't giving away free plus money on any props so I'd beware

and

(2) Will there be a lead change in the 2nd Half???
Yes +140
No -170
not having a lead change in the 2nd half coupled by the possibility of a team with 3 unanswered scores all lend to the game actually not being close.

So at first glance looking at those two propositions people saying this game will/should be very close may very well could be wrong. People thinking this game will be close likely would be jumping all over the plus money in both propositions and the sportsbooks aren't giving away free plus money on any prop.

I know the prop wagers are not put out with the supposed sharps in mind but for John Q Public and their action so I would tread lightly on this game being close

Yours in Winners
Bernie

 

[KUCKERSPANIEL69]

LIke what I see since I been saying GB by 13 since the line came out!!!!!
Anyone know what the $$ is on adjusted line gb-10.5??????

 

[ACE-ACE]

The one you need to look at is
Largest lead in the game by either team will be 13.5....over -135

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

LIke what I see since I been saying GB by 13 since the line came out!!!!!
Anyone know what the $$ is on adjusted line gb-10.5??????

adjusted numbers:

GB -10 1/2 +317

GB-13 +410


PITT -10 1/2 +496

PITT-13 +651




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